RUSI Experts React to US Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Regional states, particularly those in the Gulf, viewed the US-Iran nuclear talks facilitated by Oman as the only viable path to stability. Even a limited, “quick” deal that fell short of addressing the totality of their security concerns about Iran’s regional posture was seen as a superior alternative to the worst-case scenario of a direct Iran-Israel war in which the United States enters the fray. This would exponentially raise the probability of prolonged instability in Iran and across its borders."

“The [U.S.] defense budget is continually under pressure. We have real readiness issues after many years of deployment,” says Rachel Ellehuus, a former adviser to the U.S. NATO mission. “The U.S. is facing its own pressures and really needs allies to step up.”

This has happened because security was not in place and the question is, ‘is [the level of security] really high enough?’ — because the threat is so great. We need to look at the full range of threats and decide what we need in place to counter these threats,” he added. "We have been lucky in recent decades because there has not been that threat, but the situation has changed.”

The fundamental reality remains that military action alone can only roll back the programme by degrees, not eliminate it fully.

The US has directly entered the war with military power only it could have provided. If the Iranians choose a broader military response against US forces, there are targets across the Middle East, but all would risk widening the conflict at a time of extreme vulnerability for the Iranian regime.

Iran had vowed to retaliate harshly against US interests in the Middle East if it attacked Iranian nuclear sites. Now that the strikes have come, Tehran faces a stark dilemma: retaliate and risk a wider war or pause to consolidate at home.