Matthew Savill comments on the US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities

'The nature of the facility at Fordow – under a mountain – means that the success of the operation is not immediately apparent. Imagery can’t show much about the damage down at the centrifuge enrichment hall, so the US and Israel will be relying heavily on intelligence from inside the Iranian system. Reporting that strikes were also launched on Esfahan and Natanz (including Massive Ordnance Penetrators at the latter) are consistent with an attempt to eliminate uranium enrichment facilities. UK ministers have said that the UK was not involved, and publicly available data is consistent with this in terms of the ability of B-2 bombers able to fly from the US mainland being refuelled in the air.'

'If the Iranians choose a broader military response against US forces, there are targets across the Middle East, especially in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, but all would risk widening the conflict at a time of extreme vulnerability for the Iranian regime and some US forces already appear to have been dispersed from locations such as Qatar. Their ballistic missile forces have been firing salvoes at Israel of decreasing size, though they have not yet used much, if any, of their cruise missile stockpiles. The UK is present at many of these locations, and would need protection from ballistic missiles provided by US Patriot batteries, while UK Typhoon jets at Cyprus could provide some air defences against drones and cruise missiles. It is likely that Israeli strikes will continue, given their stated intent to cause wider damage to the Iranian military beyond the nuclear programme.'