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We know Hezbollah backed down in 2024 to preserve its existing missile stocks, which contain Scuds they were given by Assad, and Iranian Fateh 110 short-range ballistic missiles,” he said. “It is hard to secretly obtain ballistic missiles because they need to be stored with temperature control, undergo maintenance, usually at centralised military bases. Moving Scuds is not easy, particularly if Israel was watching the Lebanese-Syrian border crossing.” He added: “It is plausible that immediately after the fall of Assad, Syrian army officers traded missiles with Hezbollah for a chance to escape to Lebanon.”

A better language for de-escalation is unlikely now to come from the US or from Iran, but to come from third parties, and I think everybody is banking on this position from the European Union, China, or Britain to be more rational and concerned about the fallout."

Most pre-war public estimates of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal had the upper reach at around 2000kms for the larger Shahab-3 and Sejjil types; far short of the range needed to hit Diego Garcia. However, the launches in this case may have been improvised use of the Simorgh space launch vehicle, which could offer greater range as a ballistic missile; albeit at the likely cost of terminal accuracy.”