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For so long as Russia is successfully procuring the components it needs for its military, and for so long as Russia is successfully selling its oil, the environment remains target-rich.” Keatinge said it was too early to decide whether the sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil had been effective, because little had been done to enforce secondary sanctions against companies that continued to buy their oil. “A successful sanctions regime relies not only on identifying new targets, but also ensuring implementation against already identified targets,” he said. “Ukraine’s allies need to follow through on implementing existing sanctions and taking action against those that facilitate evasion.”

The alliance should prioritise shows of force that illustrate strength and unity, said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson and fellow with London's Royal United Services Institute think tank. In practice, that means rapidly announcing whether Moscow is behind a hybrid attack and running ‘no-notice’ military exercises on the Russian border with Lithuania or Estonia."