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There’s is always a risk that land strikes defeating the [Venezuelan] forces could leave a vacuum of power for militias under criminal control or proxies of Colombian guerrillas known to have jumped the border into Venezuelan territory.” US land operations in Venezuela would require the consent of a neighbouring South American country to act as a platform for troops, Solar noted. Solar believes deposition of Maduro is unlikely due to the president’s skill at curating a loyal inner circle, however the top ranks of the Venezuelan military could hand him over to the US. But regime change would require “serious investment in post-conflict reconstruction and security assurances”, he said.

The Tehran regime would benefit from discussions with Moscow to purchase Su-35 advanced air superiority fighters and state-of-the-art air defence systems, as well as technology to significantly increase the accuracy of its ballistic missiles, said Dr Jack Watling, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank... Watching to see if Iran embarks on discussions with Russia has become a priority for the intelligence community. It is thought “those talks are now being pushed with more vigour” within Iran, said Dr Watling, a British military historian. The Su-35 has “a mature and effective” radar system which means that it can detect and track objects and manage multiple engagements... Russia’s defence industry has been ramping up production of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and will be left with an excess if the conflict ends...“They're going to have a glut of production versus their domestic requirements,” said Dr Watling. “The Russians will want to export because their businesses will want to recover their investments.” But more beneficial for Iran’s forces are the improvements Russia has made because of the war...“Russian air defence has now been tested against a lot of western systems and so the software and the radar performance has improved significantly, such that the Russians are achieving a high intercept rate against ATACMS [army tactical missile systems], GMLRS [guided multiple launch rocket systems] and HARM anti-radiation missiles."

Yermak’s departure may “reinforce skepticism within the Trump administration” about Zelenskyy’s inner circle, giving them further reasons to push for concessions, said Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.