Burcu Ozcelik reacts to US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities

'Following the US surgical strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, the concern is what form the Iranian reaction will take. Iran’s credibility, internally and externally, has received an unprecedented blow, as it ultimately failed to shield its coveted nuclear programme. There is a tenuous chance that the risk of escalation may be contained—provided Washington signals strongly that its operation was narrowly focused on curbing Iran’s nuclear capabilities rather than a grand strategy to pursue regime change.'

'Iran had vowed to retaliate harshly against US interests in the Middle East if it attacked Iranian nuclear sites. Now that the strikes have come, Tehran faces a stark dilemma: retaliate and risk a wider war or pause to consolidate at home.'

'De-escalation may allow the regime to focus inwards to deter political instability, reinforce elite command and control, and manage the political fallout from ten days of war with Israel. But inaction carries its own cost—undermining Tehran’s credibility after years of vows to protect its nuclear program at all costs. Iran’s options are both limited and incredibly risky.'

'Mobilising proxies in Iraq or Yemen could invite punishing US reprisals, particularly if American forces suffer casualties. More perilous still would be an attempt to disrupt or shut the Strait of Hormuz—an act that could trigger global economic shockwaves and runs counter to Iran's own interests. Tehran’s next move may determine whether this war expands—or ends in uneasy, albeit possibly temporary, restraint.'

'The deeper question is whether Iran will rush to rebuild, believing deterrence lies in speed? This has been the long-feared scenario. Or will the strikes serve as a sobering lesson—that any move toward weaponisation invites direct attacks on the Iranian homeland? Last night’s assault may have disrupted the program’s momentum, but it has not extinguished the strategic dilemma at its core. There is a gap between Iran's nuclear intent and capability—it is yet unclear how far last night’s US strikes went in widening this gap.'

'To reduce the risk of further escalation across the region, Israel will have to determine now at what point it will suspend its military strikes against Iran. While the full extent of the damage to the three sites, Fordo, Natanz, Isfahan, is yet to be determined, the US strikes achieved what Israeli policymakers have long sought: a significant setback to Iran’s nuclear program and a demonstration that the US is willing to act.'

'But continued Israeli military action—especially if it targets regime infrastructure—risks reinforcing Tehran’s belief that the endgame is not deterrence, but regime change.'

'This could entrench Iran’s resolve and push the conflict into a far more dangerous phase. What bears close scrutiny now is the internal cohesion of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the decision-making dynamics around Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. These will shape whether Iran opts for escalation, restraint, or something more unpredictable.'