Proliferation and Nuclear Policy

Darya Dolzikova, an expert on nuclear policy at RUSI, said: “It’s a strategically important sector for Moscow. And the contracts in the civil nuclear sector are very, very long-term contracts… So you have this very long continued dependence on Russia once there is a nuclear power plant that’s built in the country.”

Experts say that without access to confidential fuel supply contracts, it is hard to conclude that direct displacement of Russian uranium in the United States by Chinese equivalents is taking place, but they caution that trading dependence on Russia for greater reliance on China would hardly solve the problem. “Chinese imports from Russia have increased, with high volumes historically speaking, and now there is a frankly quite impressive increase of exports from China to the U.S.,” said Darya Dolzikova of the Royal United Services Institute. “You can’t rule out displacement.”

“Russia may be able to take advantage of incongruencies in sanctions or other restrictions, as well as persistent contractual dependencies and supply challenges, to maintain access to Western nuclear fuel supply chains and continue generating revenue through its enriched uranium exports,” the Royal United Services Institute, or RUSI, says in its report.