Transnational Jihadist Threats

Salafi-jihadism

Ideology plays a crucial role in establishing jihadists as a significant non-state transnational threat in the contemporary world. Salafi-jihadism, while the predominant form of transnational jihadism, is not the only variant; it represents an absolute and utopian ideology that advocates for war to achieve a better world. Nevertheless, in recent years, it has become evident that Salafi-jihadism has struggled to fully integrate many local jihadist movements that have aligned with it since the 1990s. Additionally, it is increasingly apparent that various strains and schools of thought are beginning to emerge within Salafi-jihadism itself.

Islamist Violent Extremist Organisations (VEOs)

Islamist VEOs tend to thrive in areas characterised by weak or oppressive governance, where they have successfully established their own forms of governance in remote, border, or otherwise unregulated regions. These organisations have demonstrated significant adaptability and resilience, even in the face of a wide range of counter-terrorism and prevention of violent extremism (CT/PCVE) initiatives. Their activities include the recruitment of individuals willing to travel to support their causes. The legal classification of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) was created in response to the large-scale movement of individuals joining the so-called Islamic State (IS). However, this classification raises several complex issues, such as distinguishing FTFs from foreign fighters, meeting the evidentiary standards required for prosecution, and addressing varying levels of willingness to repatriate FTFs and their families.

Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP)

ISKP has gained widespread notoriety in recent years, particularly due to its increasing involvement in terrorist activities across Europe. It is important to note, however, that prior to around 2020, ISKP was primarily associated with operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Central Asia, and Iran. By establishing financial networks in Turkey, ISKP gained the capability to extend its operations into Europe. This capacity was significantly bolstered when the central leadership of the Islamic State assigned ISKP the responsibility of overseeing all its members from Central Asia. A crucial insight from research conducted on Central Asian jihadism between 2014 and 2018, including studies by RUSI, highlighted the significant connections between migration, radicalisation, and the recruitment efforts of VEOs.

The Terrorism and Conflict Studies team conducts an analysis of transnational jihadist threats across various regions, including Europe, the Middle East, Central and East Asia, North and Sub-Saharan Africa, and both North and South America. Our efforts are strengthened by our work in counter-terrorism and preventing violent extremism, enabling us to provide insights that shape policies and practices for effective and meaningful responses in these areas.