Is Cuba next? What the fallout from the Iran war means for Havana

A “friendly takeover” could resemble Venezuela in the aftermath of Maduro’s removal, “where you still have an authoritarian regime in power but moving in the direction and at the speed that the US determines,” said Carlos Solar, senior research fellow, Latin American Security at RUSI, a London-based defense think tank. Solar told CNBC by email that Cuba had lost support from Venezuela and Iran “at a moment of maximum pressure” from the Trump administration. But he added: “What is unclear is how the US will make the Cuban regime break, forcing Havana to capitulate.” “We are not seeing the kind of military buildup prelude to operation Absolute Resolve that eventually led to Maduro being captured in January. It could well be that the US approaches Cuba in a totally different way,” Solar said.