Iran

We're already seeing signs of a real squeeze inside Iran, and this is not only the consequence of the blockade and certainly not of the six-week war - Iran entered the war from a position of financial weakness and uncertainty. The protests that erupted on the streets of Tehran and in many parts of Iran from December and peaked in early January were driven by currency depreciation and the threat of higher unemployment and inflation. So there was already a contraction in the economy. That was the direction of travel. Now the double blockade that we're seeing in the Strait of Hormuz affects deeply Iran's ability to export its oil products."

The smaller vessels, the locally operated fast attack craft and so on, are very often operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps so a very different chain of command to the traditional navy and operating through a different remit and a different line. So they may well be operating in small pockets, small cells and operating within a strategy that they are aware of and they know of but it may not be very closely controlled from Tehran. And what threat do they pose to shipping? Can they be ignored? They certainly can't be ignored. They are difficult to detect, difficult to engage with, and there can be a lot of them"

I think there is a lot of posturing going on...my expectation is that the talks will go forward but I also don't expect all that much to come out of this round of talks...but they lay down the groundwork for more discussions and the more discussions we have, then the more likely it is that we will come to some sort of agreement that will avert more war."