Iran

I fully expect there to be a strike of some sort. I don't see much likelihood in terms of getting to a deal...I think the Trump administration has really boxed itself in on this. You can't send an armada to the region and not get something out of it. I do hope, however, that a deal will be found."

The issues that drove Iranians to the streets, a great personal cost, remain intact. They are structural. They're very difficult for the regime to do away with. These are economic grievances that have been made worse by the US administration's maximum pressure campaign, and by that I mean US-led international sanctions against Iran, which has made it very difficult to address the core day-to-day requirements of average Iranians, and that's not going away anytime soon."

I think the strategic mistake or miscalculation that Tehran might possibly be making at this current moment is a failure to recognise that the operating environment and the diplomatic strategic environment, in fact, has changed significantly since the 12-day war last year. So arguing that the negotiating position should be narrowly focused on the nuclear issue I think might be a misreading by Tehran, both in terms of what the US is willing to agree to, as well as what the United States might be willing to take on militarily. We've been seeing, of course, over the past few weeks an intensified surge in US military assets building up in the Gulf. This is very much situated within the broader context...[of] President Trump's peace through strength approach, which is the idea that military and diplomatic tracks can unfold and can go forward in parallel. There might be some ambiguity about what the desired US end state is with respect to what it wants to see happen in Iran but I think both sides are trying to assess what each other's thresholds are and risk appetite as they enter into what looks like a possible new round of negotiations. I think the big question is how long President Trump is willing to wait before they are able to arrive at some kind of deal that the Americans will be able to live with at this stage."