Iran

Something has shifted fundamentally,” said Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), the London-based think tank. “The mood has changed domestically and there are cracks in the system we have never seen before. “It’s premature to say the regime will collapse but I do think some kind of change is inevitable.”

They wouldn’t be sad to see Iran taken down a couple of pegs, but they would rather live with a weak Iran than the risk of a large round of retaliation,” said Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute think tank...“The aircraft carrier that is currently sitting off the coast of Venezuela should probably be in the Middle East. There used to be a commitment to what was called the central command area of responsibility – a carrier in the region – and that has changed,” Mr Saville said.

I think we have now entered a new phase of greater uncertainty over the next few days in terms of what or if a US military strike - which I would argue still seems likely and is on the table - whether it takes place and what the target deck looks like. In terms of will the regime topple, I think the concept of regime collapse itself is quite problematic. What we will likely see instead is some sort of transition, whether led by one individual or a constellation of leaders across the security forces and intelligence, that is yet to be determined and I think that is going to be ... a quite protracted and painful process."