United States

The big question is what comes next, because the sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are a noticeable blow to Russia. In some ways, we can already see their impact, as Indian and Chinese refineries are also more cautious about purchasing Russian oil. The essential question is whether Trump really wants to keep up the pressure on Moscow or whether it was just a sudden outburst of anger. And this leads to another dilemma: will there be further sanctions against refineries that continue to buy oil from Lukoil or Rosneft when the grace period expires at the end of November? It is still difficult to say how serious Trump is, but sooner or later it will have to become clear."

Whether Russia no longer receives luxury goods from Europe is actually completely irrelevant to the course of the war. And in crucial areas the sanction packages were repeatedly watered down to the lowest common denominator, especially in the EU. On oil, for example, Western governments opted for a price cap in order not to destabilise the global energy market. Russia was still allowed to export oil, but only up to a certain price. That was clever in theory, but it allowed Moscow to continue earning money. The big moves that could have really put Russia in trouble did not happen. Instead, there were many small pinpricks."

I wouldn't be surprised if it's counter-drone systems that are in their ships," he added. He says the US may be worried about the risk of Venezuelan drones being used to gather intelligence or the potential for kamikaze attacks on US warships. "I can't say for certain... but if you think about what the Russians have been using, if you think about what the Iranians have - the stuff is out there and it is available from Venezuela's allies."