United States

“It is too soon to call whether they will ultimately join Iran’s retaliation or not,” said Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank...That the Houthis have not yet done so likely hints at “the pace and sequencing of Iran’s retaliatory response,” according to Ozcelik at RUSI. Tehran “may judge that the Houthi card is better held in reserve for later.” The pause also speaks to the “internal factionalism” within the movement, Ozcelik added, with hard-liners “spoiling for a fight” while others argue that “tightening control over Yemeni territory should take priority.”

Justin Bronk, the senior research fellow for airpower and technology at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “It was short-sighted in terms of dismissing what Ukraine can contribute in terms of specialist advice. Ukraine is unquestionably one of the leaders in the world in the way that it does air defence command and control.”

"This choice between Russian energy and global market volatility is a very bad choice for Europe," Dan Marks, a specialist in energy security at the defence think tank, the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), told me. He says Europe will still manage to secure energy supplies in the current crisis, despite the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, because the wealthy continent can out-pay other regions in a crisis. But the problem is cost and competitiveness. Long-term, he says, Europe needs to think about how to better build energy stockpiles and reduce or reorganise energy consumption to attain more control over sudden supply changes, like we're seeing now. Marks also warns that continued European reliance on outside actors, like the US, for crucial energy supplies, throws up "wildcards" often not considered. What if Trump suddenly decided to keep energy supplies for US domestic consumption only, in an attempt to reduce petrol prices in the US or as a way to punish European countries for not immediately sending warships to the Strait of Hormuz to keep the waterway open, as he demanded this week. Marks also raises the possibility of the US suffering terrible storms or fires in the future, destroying LNG terminals. "It's a layering of risk. There are no easy answers here," Marks concludes.