Even though it faces a range of protests, Syria is unlikely to face popular-led regime change. Instead, unremitting instability and a standoff between protestors and the regime are more likely to follow leading to a combination of piecemeal reforms and more violence. However, internal challenges to the regime should not be ruled out.
Water scarcity, although a relatively low priority, is still a concern for the Middle Eastern security agenda. Gulf states in particular can lead the way in ensuring that water co-operation replaces the threat of water conflict.
Western intervention in Libya appears to be stalling, and the coalition has responded by committing military advisers and drones. But their priority, for the time being, is to purchase coalition longevity at the price of campaign intensity.