China

Iran is important [to China], it's a key component of the Belt and Road, Iran is a strategic partner in the Gulf, and the opening of the Gulf is quite important not only for Chinese national energy security but also for other components such as helium that China uses for microchip production. Having said that, the United States is also in dire need to limit this kind of standoff. It costs a lot of money to keep the war machine in that region. Therefore, if Trump and Xi find a solution to open Hormuz in a way that lets Iran find also a kind of flexible engagement, letting Chinese and American cargo ships move in the Gulf, that can show that Trump made a good deal and that Xi Jinping is portraying China as a stabilising factor in the world."

Defence analyst Robert Tollast of the Rusi think tank ... added that the long-running Iran alliance with Russia, which led to Tehran supplying Moscow with Shahed drones it now fires en masse into Ukraine, had considerably helped its military developments. Recent attacks on US airbases and key sites across the Gulf have highlighted Iranian capability to impact within metres of an intended target. That suggests a "dramatic improvement", Mr Tollast said, over earlier Iranian systems, which were inconsistent and had wide error margins.

Philip Shetler-Jones, an Indo-Pacific security expert at the U.K.'s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said China could call it [a blockade] a domestic "law enforcement" mission under the guise of its "One China principle." The operation could be subtle, with enforcement dialed up or down depending on the response, he said. At least initially, it would likely be narrowly targeted at shipping or cargo associated with a country that has little capacity to retaliate, or has drawn China's disapproval for some reason. The goal would be to prove that Beijing can impose its jurisdiction with impunity, Shetler-Jones said. "The action would be undertaken by the coast guard, perhaps in combination with maritime militia in a blocking role. The PLA Navy would be nearby but not engaged directly," he predicted.