China

The big question is what comes next, because the sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are a noticeable blow to Russia. In some ways, we can already see their impact, as Indian and Chinese refineries are also more cautious about purchasing Russian oil. The essential question is whether Trump really wants to keep up the pressure on Moscow or whether it was just a sudden outburst of anger. And this leads to another dilemma: will there be further sanctions against refineries that continue to buy oil from Lukoil or Rosneft when the grace period expires at the end of November? It is still difficult to say how serious Trump is, but sooner or later it will have to become clear."

Part of the problem with European sanctions is that there’s never really the follow-through to sort of terrify people into making decisions that go against Russia. Whereas with the Americans, there’s always that fear that you might be next to get your hands chopped off.”

“Testing has two different implications – the science and the signalling,” says Darya Dolzikova, senior research fellow for proliferation at the Royal United Services Institute...“If Russia or China were to start explosive testing they would be sending a signal of escalating tensions and possibly resorting to nuclear use. In that instance we would be in a very different conversation.”