China

Having Putin side-by-side with Xi signals China's strength to audiences across the Global South, analysts say. “It signals Beijing’s emergence as a pole of stability against Western pressure,” said Alessandro Arduino, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute....“China has emerged as Russia’s indispensable economic backstop: absorbing energy exports, supplying dual-use goods and providing diplomatic cover, all while calibrating its support to avoid triggering secondary sanctions or crossing the red line of direct military assistance...For the first time in the modern era, Beijing is unmistakably ‘the big brother’ marking a historic inversion in the relationship with Moscow," Arduino said."

Nuclear ambitions in China, Russia, North Korea and Iran – all states hostile to the West, with the first three located in relative proximity – may mean that the US seeks to divert resources to counter aggression, leaving Europe exposed. That “could create uncertainties over the ability of US strategic forces to simultaneously deter aggression in two theatres,” wrote Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow specialising in nuclear proliferation and deterrence at Rusi, a UK defence think tank, in a recent report. “Growing US requirements to deter both China and Russia raise concerns over just how much the US nuclear umbrella can stretch in terms of capabilities before it starts to leak.”

Alessandro Arduino, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank in London, said China was recasting its role as “an increasingly consequential security actor”. “Nowhere is this shift more visible than in the Sahel, where the erosion of France’s military presence has unsettled long-standing security arrangements and opened space for new external players,” Arduino said. He noted that SIPRI data showed China leading the small arms market since 2023-2024. Rather than using boots on the ground, China had a lower-profile strategy built on arms transfers, training and institutional ties, according to Arduino. He said China’s main competitor in the region was Turkey, given that Russia was focused on Ukraine and US systems were either too costly or unavailable. “Competitive pricing and permissive financing have made Chinese equipment especially attractive to cash-strapped governments,” Arduino said.