Disrupting Russian Air Defence Production: Reclaiming the Sky

This research paper examines the vulnerabilities in Russia's air defence production ecosystem, highlighting critical dependencies on foreign technologies, materials and supply chains. It underscores the strategic importance of disrupting Russian air defence capabilities to bolster Ukraine's long-range strike campaign and strengthen European security against Russian aggression.

Key Recommendations:

• Prevent Modernisation of Microelectronics Production: Disrupt Russia's access to critical materials and technologies, such as beryllium oxide ceramics and advanced microprocessors, to hinder radar and missile production.
• Enforce Targeted Sanctions: Impose sanctions on companies supplying raw materials, components and machine tools to Russia, including those from NATO member states and third countries.
• Exploit Cyber Vulnerabilities: Leverage Russia's reliance on foreign software for designing and testing air defence systems to disrupt production and compromise system integrity.
• Target Critical Nodes: Prioritise kinetic strikes on concentrated industrial hubs, such as Tula, to disrupt production of key systems like Pantsir SHORAD.
• Reassess Russian Air Defence Reliability: Encourage international customers to reconsider the resilience and reliability of Russian air defence systems, given their exposure to disruption and potential technical compromise.

This paper provides actionable insights for Ukraine and its international partners to exploit Russia's industrial weaknesses, disrupt its air defence production and enhance the balance of conventional deterrence in Europe.