Russia

I think you could expect a conflict in NATO territory to look very much like what we've seen in Ukraine, where you have this combination of conventional warfare combined with more innovation and technology on the battlefield, having to constantly iterate and react to different moves by the enemy. The new thing on the battlefield is you can see and hear everybody, but that also means that you can be seen and heard. So, tactics to obfuscate your movements and to create multiple dilemmas for your adversary, those are the types of things that have changed the way that NATO has been planning for conflict with Russia, or any other possible threat...First and foremost, I think it's very positive that the Strategic Defence Review [SDR] talks about that combination of more conventional capabilities and more innovation on the battlefield. Secondly, the SDR really recognises that one of the shortcomings of the British military is the small numbers, particularly in the land forces. So you see a lot of language in there about developing the reserve forces. Thirdly, the SDR talks a lot about a mindset of resilience and that's the part where we bring in society. We have to get them used to hybrid challenges. We have think about some very basic things like stockpiling, food security, supply chain security, and protection of critical infrastructure. So the picture I'm trying to paint here is a whole of society approach. And we have seen that at work in Ukraine, and we are learning lessons from that every day."

The shadow fleet itself is not a new threat,” said Gonzalo Saiz Erausquin, a research fellow at the finance and security centre at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank. “But [it] has expanded drastically after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That saw what we call the shadow fleet explode to some 900-1,200 vessels globally...It is not highly structured or homogeneous. These are vessels that Russian interests are able to purchase second-hand, opaquely owned tankers or owned by companies prepared to engage in illicit activity.”

Despite the efforts of the Western sanctions alliance to disrupt Russia’s use of the shadow fleet, the Kremlin still continues to profit handsomely from the sale of oil,” said Tom Keatinge, director of the Centre for Finance and Security at the London-based Royal United Services Institute think tank. “It is therefore no wonder that Ukraine is taking matters into her own hands via more direct and permanent action.”