Iran
I think we have now entered a new phase of greater uncertainty over the next few days in terms of what or if a US military strike - which I would argue still seems likely and is on the table - whether it takes place and what the target deck looks like. In terms of will the regime topple, I think the concept of regime collapse itself is quite problematic. What we will likely see instead is some sort of transition, whether led by one individual or a constellation of leaders across the security forces and intelligence, that is yet to be determined and I think that is going to be ... a quite protracted and painful process."
