Russia and Ukraine
If you actually go into thinking about what Russia's actual incentives to use nuclear weapons in any sort of practical context would be. If you do that, you end up, at least I end up, being much less concerned because ultimately the only scenario in which they're likely to actually consider seriously using one would be if their military is essentially breaking or broken on the battlefield and they feel like that's the only option they have left, which at one or two points in late 2022 was a concern. But even then...they'd have to use a lot [of tactical nuclear weapons] to materially change the battlefield situation in that bad a context for them militarily. And if they use lots, it would be very, very difficult to control escalation. And if there was further escalation, that might go to all-out nuclear war, which would be terrifying. But that wouldn't get the Russians what they want either."
