Iran and the US
The reality is that control of the strait is not a simple question of pure military power. It's a question of confidence. Confidence of the markets, confidence of insurers and confidence of civilian shipping. And if they have confidence or not, that's largely what determines whether or not they're prepared to move through the area... I think the ceasefire only exists in so far as there are massive airstrikes taking place across Iran from either Israel or the US. The reality is that the US, in terms of blockading Iran, was conducting an operation that under normal circumstances would be considered warlike. For their part, the Iranians, it seems, have fired again on regional Gulf states and continue to harass or threaten shipping. So there isn't an absolute ceasefire in place."
