Ukraine and Russia
Ukraine has its territory on its side, with around 100 miles between Russia’s recent advance near Pokrovsk and Ukraine’s next biggest city in the east, Dnipro. “If you’re trading that for a very high rate of Russian casualties, you can trade a lot of ground for a long time,” said Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the British think tank Royal United Services Institute. A higher rate of Russian casualties, in combination with economic and other forms of pressure, could encourage the Kremlin to seek negotiations, Watling said. “It’s about shifting the trend lines in a way that alters thinking in the Kremlin about their prospects.”... While Ukraine does have more ample reserves of lethal long-range drones, their operators have been pushed back from the front line following Russia targeting them, Watling said. That means that Ukraine’s goal of killing 50,000 Russians per month depends on Russia sending 50,000 troops charging across the front lines. “The Russians dictate the rate of casualties,” Watling said.
