Matthew Savill comments on the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska
Comment by Matthew Savill
TRUMP-PUTIN SUMMIT
If Putin’s military objective was to avoid immediate constraints on Russian operations in Ukraine, then he appears to have succeeded: the continued intensity of fighting reinforces the impression that the Russians are prioritising changing facts on the ground ahead of any ceasefire.
Indeed, Putin may have successfully neutralised the idea of a ceasefire by hinting at a broader deal he knows will take time to negotiate. While we await specifics on what he offered, which have now been transmitted to Ukraine and its European partners, it seems unlikely that Russia will be prepared to take any significant steps. And though Russian progress on the ground is painfully slow, it still seems to be calculating it can outlast Ukraine and its international backers.
Absent a credible threat of more painful sanctions and expanded military support to Ukraine, the Russians remain focused on grinding the Ukrainians down. For all the US military power on display in Alaska, Putin appears to have little fear it will be turned his way. Meanwhile, the European 'Coalition of the Willing' is stuck awaiting a ceasefire that it is insufficiently intimidating to promote its activation. Having made a European deployment conditional on US support, and begun briefing about a lowered set of ambitions, Europe now has a difficult decision to make on the level of risk it is willing to take when backing Ukraine. And Ukraine still needs to find answers to Russia's military-industrial advantages.
