Dr Burcu Ozcelik reacts to the US extension of the ceasefire with Iran

"Tehran has proved it can turn geography into leverage by moving the contest to the economic chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. What it has not yet shown is whether it can convert that leverage into relief before the costs of holding out become too great, to its economy and to its relationship with China. Iran’s hold over Hormuz may have delivered leverage, but it cannot serve as an indefinite strategy of survival.”

“Iran’s disagreement with the US over core issues has long been framed in Tehran as a matter of national interest and sovereign red lines. Although the IRGC’s ascendancy in the current circumstances was hardly unforeseen, these are not newly hardened positions born of the current moment. In the here and now, Tehran is trying to demonstrate that it can withstand Trump’s coercive bargaining tactics, remain unified in its negotiating demands, and refuse to negotiate under pressure. This is a gamble.”

“The initial two-week ceasefire was never a realistic window in which to reconcile fundamentally different definitions of what 'winning' looks like. At best, it offered space for an extension, which is what we have now, although this is currently a one-sided, unilateral US declaration of an extension.”

Dr Burcu Ozcelik is Senior Research Fellow, Middle East Security, at RUSI