Dr Burcu Ozcelik Reacts to the Deal between the US and Iran to End War

'Iran has emerged from the war significantly weakened militarily, facing an economy under even greater strain than before the conflict. Weakened, however, does not mean without leverage. The conflict demonstrated that Tehran can and will deploy means of imposing costs on its adversaries, particularly in the maritime domain.'

'The Strait of Hormuz will continue to hang over regional security like the Sword of Damocles. The credible threat of disrupting shipping around one of the world’s most important chokepoints remains a powerful lever Iran will not relinquish. Alternative pipelines and trade corridors cannot replace Hormuz in the foreseeable future. Tehran will use this vulnerability to maximise concessions as negotiations drag on − a failure for Washington.'

'The US will remain a major player but it is no longer the sole organiser of regional security. Gulf states, Turkey and other regional actors will increasingly seek to define the diplomatic agenda, investing in indigenous defence capabilities and new economic corridors. Washington’s competitors − from Moscow to Beijing − will study this conflict for what it revealed about the limits of American power, decision-making, and alliance management. Those lessons will shape future crises well beyond the Middle East.'

'The memorandum of understanding does not restore the regional order that existed before 28 February and nowhere is this reality more disruptive, with likely aftershocks, than in the Gulf.'

'Inside Iran, the networks surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei are unlikely to see their grip on power challenged but the reduced risk of immediate military confrontation may strengthen those arguing that long-term security depends as much on economic recovery as on military deterrence. Whether Tehran now chooses to use whatever breathing space this agreement provides to improve the lives of ordinary Iranians, or to rebuild military capabilities, may prove more consequential than the military outcome of the war itself.'

Dr Burcu Ozcelik is Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security at RUSI