Foreword

At the December meeting of the European Council, the EU's heads of state and government will discuss the future of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) as they endeavour to answer the lingering question of what a European security and defence policy seeks to achieve. Two issues in particular loom large: the pressure placed on national defence budgets by austerity measures; and the potential UK referendum on EU membership, which could remove from the equation one of the most prominent players in the European security and defence field.

As both debates pick up, the August/September 2013 edition of the RUSI Journal presents the perspectives of three other important players in European defence regarding the possible impact of a ‘Brexit’: Anna Sundberg and Kristina Zetterlund examine the impact of a Brexit on Sweden, a member of the EU but not of NATO; Marcin Terlikowski analyses how a UK withdrawal from the EU would affect Polish efforts to promote greater European collaboration on defence; and Ronja Kempin and Jocelyn Mawdsley consider Germany's security policy and the consequences of a Brexit on Germany's approach to the CSDP. Luis Simón then analyses the 2013 French defence White Paper, highlighting France's position as being close to Germany's in its desire for greater European co-operation in defence and security policy, yet also close to the UK's in its understanding of military power as the undeniable foundation of security and prosperity. The White Paper’s shift towards a broader conception of European defence escaping the strictures of the EU-NATO dichotomy can, Simó argues, provide a useful blueprint for the future of European defence co-operation. 

We also continue our exploration of transnational organised crime and security with a highly detailed and eye-opening examination of the three dimensions of Chinese organised crime: Peng Wang dissects the resurgent domestic criminal threat within the PRC, cross-border organised crime in Greater China, and the expansion of Chinese organised crime overseas, focusing on the UK in particular.

The international security section spans a variety of themes and regions: Jacob Zenn, Atta Barkindo and Nicholas A Heras shed further light on the origins of Boko Haram in Nigeria through a compelling analysis of its ideological development and societal roots. However, regardless of the understanding developed and the counter-terrorism policies put in place, sometimes terrorist attacks cannot be averted in time. In such instances, public warning systems may be one way to mitigate the impact of an attack: Philip Kirby explores the warning systems put in place in the US and the UK after 9/11, their deficiencies and the adjustments that might make them more effective.

Perpetrators of terrorist attacks are often quick to claim ownership but the same cannot be said for cyber-attacks, and analysts are often left with the difficult task of identifying the perpetrators. In some recent, well-known cases, such as the Stuxnet attack against Iran's nuclear centrifuges, the sophistication of the attacks was used to justify their attribution to state actors. Clement Guitton and Elaine Korzak warn against this approach, arguing that the definition of sophistication is too incoherent and dependent on political circumstance to be a reliable indicator of state responsibility.

As new threats combine with the old in the international security environment and new actors play increasingly important roles within the global economy, the recent financial crisis has been hailed by many as the final blow to US hegemony. Not so in the analysis of Doug Stokes, who argues that reports of American decline have been greatly exaggerated. Most widely talked about as the likely successor to US hegemony is China: yet not enough is known outside the PRC's borders of Chinese strategic and military thinking. Ong Weichong offers a comparison between the PRC and Singapore, showing how China adapts lessons from the military experiences of others to its own situation and needs in order to create a new understanding of its military role, while Singapore remains anchored to a Western intellectual tradition.

Finally, we close this edition with another example of 'history in the making': in June this year, General David H Petraeus (Rtd) was awarded the RUSI Chesney Gold Medal, becoming its 35th recipient and following in the footsteps of Alfred Thayer Mahan, Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher. In his acceptance speech, on which his Journal contribution is based, General Petraeus revisited his experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, reflecting on the lessons learned during the ‘Counter-Insurgency Era’ of the last decade and looking towards the policy challenges of the future.

Dr Emma De Angelis
Editor