Israeli opinion generally regards the country’s efforts to contain Iran, especially in Syria, as having been successful. In fact, the trendline runs the other way: Iran is constraining Israel, entrenching all around the Jewish state.
Since the beginning of armed conflict in Syria and Iraq, thousands of militants from the Caucasus region have participated in the war. However, dislodging Daesh and a collapse of the insurgency in the North Caucasus have substantially diminished the capacities of North Caucasian jihadi groups. Nevertheless, militancy in the region has potential.
In 2017, the US launched an ineffective cruise missile attack Syria’s Shayrat airbase in retaliation for a chemical weapons attack. So, what can the Western powers do now to deter the Assad regime from repeating last week’s chlorine gas attack on Douma?
This article adds to existing research by using quantitative scenarios and counterfactual analyses of Russia’s fiscal conditions under different assumed levels of ambition for defence procurement spending.
Initial analysis suggests that the recent ‘Zapad-2017’ joint strategic exercises of Russia and Belarus (14-20 September) justified the concerns of external observers about the scale and content of the exercises, as well as constituting a possible Russian violation of the Vienna Document provisions of 2011