Trump has permanently damaged the world – how the Iran war will be felt for years

Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute, said that this had already begun. Although Iranian institutions including the President, assembly of experts, and the still-to-be-seen Supreme Leader-elect were still in place: “Wartime planning seems to have shifted responsibility for the regime more toward the IRGC.” “The regime is already changing,” she said. “This is a function of unprecedented external military pressure and loss of leadership.” Whatever form the leadership emerges from the conflict in, the “longer-term impact is yet to be felt” within Iran. “Food security, water security and economic strains that any rump regime will have to address and likely struggle to do so effectively,” she said. “We need to be prepared for change that may take years, not weeks or months.” “A ‘defeated’ Iran may not stay defeated forever. But the rollback of its military capabilities, layered onto severe pre-existing economic strain, will narrow the choices available to whatever post-Khamenei leadership emerges,” Ozcelik added.