RUSSIA | UKRAINE
What's happening on the ground is the most important thing right now but we shouldn't ignore international diplomacy. It will be especially relevant in relation to sanctions. If sanctions are to work it can't only be Western countries that are imposing those sanctions on Russia. We have to get a wider international support so looking at places like India and major Middle Eastern powers and China of course. One of the Russian strategies in response to sanctions will undoubtedly be to divert its trade towards China and perhaps to others like India. I think India is a special interest because India remains fairly reliant on Russian weapons in order to defend itself against China, so India, in relation to China, aligns itself with the West but in relation to Europe, it tries to sit on the fence, as it has done in the Security Council."