UK and Iran
One of the challenges we have is that we don't know how brittle the ruling elite is. It certainly looks like it is at its most vulnerable point certainly since the 2009 so-called Green Revolution but what we don't know is will one more push topple it. And that's got to be a factor in what will be a difficult decision for the US. It could mean that the clerical elite, the theocracy, would collapse but you might get a military takeover by elements of the Revolutionary Guard or their allies in the Basij. So one of the big decisions, and it has up until now meant perhaps a cautious approach to Iran and regime change, is the unpredictability of what comes next."
