Urban Coningham comments on the Israeli strikes on Iran

"The key unconventional options for Iran’s response are cyber-attacks, terrorism, the use of proxies, nuclear weaponisation and through CRINK (the alliance of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea). The use of proxies are likely to be contained to the Middle East region, but other responses could be aimed at targets outside of the region. Iran’s key proxy options are essentially acting as spoilers at the moment, this is true of the Houthis unsettling the US ceasefire agreement with them and again endangering trade through the Red Sea, Hezbollah, Hamas or PIJ in Lebanon disrupting the process of Lebanese Armed Forces disarming non state actors, Jordanian affiliates of Muslim Brotherhood or other Islamic groups creating political unrest, groups in Syria threatening the fragile control Al-Sharaa has over the country or Iraqi Shia Militias pushing Iraq into a more Iranian aligned orbit. These actions would raise the political cost of Israel’s new offensive on Iran, both in terms of affecting global trade and endangering key initiatives by the Gulf, the US and European states to stabilise the region.  

Arab Gulf states will be extremely nervous about escalation. Public responses to the ongoing Israeli offensive against Gaza have inflamed populations across the region, and the leaders of the GCC will be concerned that a regional war could ignite serious political unrest. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar will be especially disappointed that this has happened so soon after Trump’s visit to the region, and in spite of the huge investments that they have promised into the US economy. They may use this as leverage to convince Trump to reign in Netanyahu and ensure that today’s events do not spiral into a more prolonged conflict between Iran and Israel. GCC states will also be worried about the conflict’s effect on other Arab states in the region, Iranian proxies have capabilities to act as spoilers in the Levant, at a time when GCC states are working closely with Syrian and Lebanese counterparts to stabilise and strengthen the respective states. GCC officials will also be concerned that the Houthis could be convinced to break their ceasefire with the US and restart jeopardising the Red Sea trade routes that GCC countries rely upon for their imports and for their oil and LNG exports."