RUSI Associate Dr Walter Ladwig Comments on Operation Sindoor

"Operation Sindoor builds on earlier actions, including the 2019 Balakot strikes, but marks a notable escalation in both operational scale and strategic signaling. It reflects a shift in India’s posture—from limited or symbolic measures to the open and sustained use of conventional force in response to terrorism.

This approach challenges two long-standing assumptions in Islamabad: that nuclear threats would deter Indian military action, and that terrorism occupies a separate category from conventional conflict. India now appears less willing to maintain that distinction. In effect, future terrorist attacks may be treated as the initiation of conventional hostilities, placing the burden of de-escalation on Pakistan.

Operation Sindoor also signals a rejection of the idea that ‘plausible deniability’ can shield perpetrators. India no longer accepts that the burden of proof lies with them or that they must produce evidence ‘beyond a reasonable doubt’ to establish the Pakistani state’s complicity. The continued activity of anti-India terrorist groups on Pakistani soil, and the absence of credible action against them, is seen as sufficient justification for military response.

Rather than treating terrorism as a separate challenge, India is increasingly framing it within the logic of state-to-state deterrence. Operation Sindoor should be viewed as a recalibration—aimed at restoring deterrence, clarifying escalation thresholds, and reinforcing the consequences of inaction."