Michael Jones responds to the withdrawal of the Sudanese Armed Forces from the city of El-Fashar

'The withdrawal of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) from El-Fashar, the provincial capital of North Darfur, marks a dangerous milestone in the conflict in Sudan, effectively partitioning the country between East and West.'

'Having laid siege to the city since April 2024 - precipitating famine, displacement and the deliberate destruction of civic infrastructure - the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) now control all of urban Darfur, enabling the re-allocation of materiel and manpower to offensive operations elsewhere.'

'Coinciding with advances further south, where RSF-allied militiamen are pushing into Barah, a valuable transport hub in North Kordofan, the group appears to have shifted the momentum the SAF had gained following it recapture of Khartoum in March.'

'The breakthrough not only allows the RSF to consolidate its supply lines - ensuring the ongoing flow of foreign hardware (including long-range loitering munitions) - but helps prop up the appearance of a contiguous RSF ‘state’, however superficial this proposition actually is. Recent setbacks may also exacerbate tensions within the SAF’s coalition, with various parties – including the Darfuri 'Joint Forces' – criticising a perceived de-prioritisation of El-Fashar in favour of other fronts.'

'More immediately, the crisis underscores a growing humanitarian crisis. Previously, there have been credible accounts of systematic targeting of specific ethnic groups by RSF forces in cities like El-Geneina, characterised by mass killings, sexual violence and starvation. Similar patterns were evident in attacks on the Zamzam displacement camp, and the same tactics will likely be employed in El-Fashar on an even greater scale. Such atrocities are both an intentional method of population control, and an outcome of the RSF’s decentralised composition.'

'Much of the group’s fighting force is a messy confection of rented militia, freeloaders and mercenaries, and with a raft of middlemen translating RSF policy into practice, the prospect of accountability for any crimes committed remains worryingly remote.'

Comment by Michael Jones, Senior Research Fellow, Terrorism and Conflict