Matthew Savill responds to Israel's strikes on Iran
Comment by Matthew Savill
ISRAEL vs IRAN STRIKES
The scale of these strikes suggests this operation is intended not just to dissuade Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons, but also to cripple any potential military response and even to destabilise the regime.
"The breadth and scale of these strikes – against senior Iranian officials and other military facilities in addition to nuclear sites – suggest this operation is intended to not just dissuade Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons, but also cripple any potential military response and even to destabilise the regime. Details are still emerging but the reported targeting of the commander of the IRGC, the head of the conventional military, and advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, are all beyond that necessary for a purely ‘pre-emptive’ strike on the nuclear programme.
Israel has once again demonstrated its considerable conventional military superiority, and the size of the force allegedly assembled for this series of attacks represents the overwhelming bulk of their longer-range strike aircraft. They have the ability to conduct multiple such rounds of strikes, but operating for an extended duration over this considerable range will stretch even the Israeli Air Force. For now though, they certainly have the capacity to go again. Emerging reports about more unconventional activity by Mossad are a reminder of Israel’s expertise in covert operations, its penetration of the Iranian security establishment and its agility in planning ahead with imaginative operations which can be executed at short-notice.
Meanwhile, the Iranian response might be delayed or split into multiple phases, but their main weapon will be ballistic missiles, which have the best chance of inflicting damage on Israel, whereas drone and cruise missile attacks will face more extensive Israeli defences. Israel operations have therefore targeted air defences and ballistic missile sites to forestall this. Offensive cyber capabilities and terrorist attacks remain an option, but Iran’s proxies are much diminished in the region. If Iran believes the US or others were involved, then regional targets include the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, and air facilities in Qatar, though both would widen the conflict to drag in others."
