Matthew Savill Reacts to the Recent Ukrainian Drone Strikes
Comment by Matthew Savill
Ukrainian drone attacks
The reported use of UK supplied weapons against targets inside Russia is neither new, nor a recent escalation.
Official announcements on UK support have become more specific over time, including Rishi Sunak announcing as PM that his government would provide long-range strike weapons in addition to Storm Shadow cruise missiles. More recently there have been signing agreements for Ukrainian companies to manufacture weapons in the UK, and deals on drones which sound like they would be manufactured by UK companies.
The point of serious escalation was arguably the earlier agreement that Storm Shadow could be launched against targets inside Russia, which was in response to Russia increasing attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
The Russians essentially view Ukraine as a proxy and consider that Russia ‘at war’ with NATO already – hence the sabotage and disruption campaign underway across Europe. No doubt Moscow will consider these current attacks as reinforcing their arguments, but it is complementary to what they already believe.
In terms of a potential Russian response, they could look upon any production facilities as targets for sabotage and the supply chains as viable for disruption. This is activity they already seem to be conducting elsewhere in Europe and we should not lose sight of the fact Russians have already recruited people to conduct attacks in the UK.
The UK Government and companies involved should be ensuring they have decent security and protection against physical or cyber interference and think about threats to their personnel and transportation.
Russia is still deterred from a direct attack on Europe, though it will continue to test NATO air defences and response times, as well as test UK readiness and reactions around our airspace and territorial waters. Their rhetoric is intended to make the UK pause and consider the risks of ‘escalation’, but the Russians can hardly complain given their continued and escalating use of ballistic and cruise missiles against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and urban centres.Â
Comment by Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences, RUSI
