Malcolm Chalmers provides his initial thoughts on the Strategic Defence Review

This is the most ambitious defence review for a generation. It needed to be. UK defence simultaneously faces two fundamental challenges, one geopolitical and one technological. The first is driven both by heightened threat – especially from Russia – and persistent uncertainty about how rapidly Europeans will have to adjust to a US shift to the Indo-Pacific. The second results from the need to incorporate new and emerging technologies – notably the shift to uncrewed and AI systems – if our armed forces are to remain competitive in a world where state threats are returning with a vengeance.

While the Review points to the need to recapitalise defence and invest in new technologies, it is less clear about the timescale for getting there. In part, this reflects concerns about the capacity of both the military and the UK defence industry to move rapidly. Hence the emphasis in the Review about the need for radical improvement in MoD procurement processes and investing up front in production capabilities to ensure that most of the new ‘defence dividend’ is spent in the UK and not on imports.

The Reviewers have been clear that the full realisation of their proposals will require the government to deliver on its ‘ambition’ to spend 3% of GDP by 2034. While the government has been clear how it is paying for the increase from 2.3% to 2.5% - by cutting the aid budget – it has not explained how it will pay for the extra £16 billion annually that will be needed for a sustainable increase to 3.0%.