Justin Bronk comments on the latest deep strikes on Russia

Even just from the immediately visually confirmed destruction of around 8 Tu-95 bombers, a Tu-22M3 and several other aircraft likely including more Tu-95s and an A-50U AWACS, this is a stunning success for Ukraine’s special services. If even half the total claim of 41 aircraft damaged/destroyed is confirmed, it will have a significant impact on the capacity of the Russian Long Range Aviation force to keep up its regular large scale cruise missile salvos against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, whilst also maintaining their nuclear deterrence and signalling patrols against NATO and Japan.

The LRA force likely had slightly over 60 active Tu-95s and around 20 Tu-160 bombers for launching Kh-101 cruise missiles, and the fleet had been heavily tasked throughout the war. The Tu-95 has not been produced for more than 30 years and production/modernisation of the Tu-160 is at a very limited scale, so replacing losses will be very challenging. The Tu-22M3 that Russia uses to launch anti-ship quasi-ballistic missiles into Ukraine has also not been produced since the 1990s and at least two had already been lost or shot down since 2022.