Jennifer Scotland reacts to the killing of cartel leader 'El Mencho' in Mexico
Comment by Jennifer Scotland
El Mencho Killing
The death of the founder and head of the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), one of the country’s largest and most violent organised crime groups, is primed to escalate violence.
“The killing of Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes (alias ‘El Mencho’) by the Mexican armed forces with US intelligence support, marks a significant moment in Mexico’s ongoing struggle against cartels. The death of the founder and head of the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), one of the country’s largest and most violent organised crime groups, is primed to escalate violence.”
“'Decapitation' strategies have a poor track record in Mexico. Rather than dismantling criminal groups and disrupting illicit markets, removing kingpins tends to create leadership vacuums that drive internal fragmentation and competition. CJNG itself emerged from the splintering of the Milenio Cartel following its leader’s arrest. With no CJNG has a robust succession plan in place is unclear – without no obvious successor to El Mencho, there is a risk of a violent internal reconfiguration within CJNG.”
This uncertainty heightens the risk of inter-cartel competition, as rivals eye a potentially weakened CJNG. As a result, CJNG will be more incentivised than ever to deploy its signature violence to keep opportunistic competitors at bay.
Beyond keeping rivals in check, CJNG will seek to deter further action by the Mexican authorities. Retaliatory attacks have already materialised, with road blockades and arson reported across multiple states. Such disruption threatens a devastating civilian and economic toll that creates a policy dilemma for the Mexican government.
Growing US pressure for a hard-line response to cartels significantly narrows President Sheinbaum’s room for manoeuvre. Any informal truce – historically a pragmatic tool for managing cartel violence in Mexico – risks being interpreted in Washington as a sign of weakness or complicity. To avoid jeopardising bilateral cooperation, Sheinbaum will be under pressure to find a way to restore order that avoids reaching such a compromise.
Jennifer Scotland is a Research Analyst in RUSI’s Organised Crime & Policing Studies programme.
