Dr Burcu Ozcelik comments on Israeli strikes on Iran

"Pandora's box has been cast wide open with Israel's sweeping overnight air campaign against Iranian targets—an escalation that risks reshaping the strategic landscape of the Middle East. By targeting senior IRGC leadership and nuclear infrastructure deep inside Iranian territory, Israel has forcefully challenged assumptions about Iran’s deterrence posture.

The sheer depth and precision of the strikes—reaching into the heart of Tehran and eliminating key figures such as IRGC chief Major General Hossein Salami—underscore the extent of Israeli intelligence penetration and the degraded state of Iran's air defence systems. For Tehran, this is not only a tactical loss but a profound strategic humiliation.

The decapitation of senior command is expected to disrupt Iran's decision-making architecture at a critical moment, complicating any coordinated retaliatory response. While Iranian officials have vowed 'severe punishment,' the precedent of the April and October 2024 attacks suggests that Israel may have adapted and developed contingency plans to blunt the effectiveness of any Iran's counterattack.

What comes next may define the regional security order for years to come and the risk of regional escalation remains high. The type, targets and scale of Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Israel will determine whether the US will be compelled to mobilise military action to support Israel in the event of a coordinated, large-scale counterattack by Iran that overwhelms Israel’s defences.

Beyond direct targeting of Israeli territory, Iran’s anticipated retaliation may rely on what remains of its network of regional proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. While these groups offer Tehran a means of asymmetric response and armed reinforcement, their willingness and operational capacity to escalate remain uncertain. The fragile US-brokered ceasefire with the Houthis in Yemen now hangs in the balance—potentially unravelling if the group is mobilised to act on Iran’s behalf. Any such move would reverberate far beyond Yemen, threatening maritime security in the Red Sea and risking direct entanglement of the US and UK in a widening regional conflict."