RUSI NewsbriefVOLUME 39ISSUE 3members only

The Rise, Fall and Future of Jihad in the North Caucasus


Main Image Credit A group of young people on Muhammad Ali Avenue in Grozny, Chechnya in October 2018. Chechnya is among the most economically weak federal subjects in Russia, which depends greatly on budget transfers from Moscow. This, combined with its high birth rate, me


Since the beginning of armed conflict in Syria and Iraq, thousands of militants from the Caucasus region have participated in the war. However, dislodging Daesh and a collapse of the insurgency in the North Caucasus have substantially diminished the capacities of North Caucasian jihadi groups. Nevertheless, militancy in the region has potential.

In recent years the intensity of armed conflict in North Caucasus has sharply declined. According to analysis released by the Conflict Analysis and Prevention Center in 2018, 110 individuals died or were injured as the result of the insurgency in the North Caucasus, the lowest number of casualties in the last eight years. Simultaneously, the advance of the Iraqi and Syrian armies, as well as Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq, resulted in the retaking of jihadi-held

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