Gender and Identity Analysis Framework for Hybrid Threats

This paper provides a practical framework for integrating gender and identity considerations into the assessment of and response to state-linked hybrid threats affecting NATO Allies and partners. It shows how hostile actors operationalise identity dynamics around gender roles, sexuality, migration, ethnicity and religion to polarise communities, erode trust and constrain decision-making across multiple domains. Rather than treating these dynamics as peripheral, the framework positions them as operational variables that shape the human terrain and can influence resilience, cohesion, host-nation support and freedom of action.

The paper offers structured prompts to help analysts and planners identify patterns, connect signals across domains and design responses that disrupt the mechanisms a campaign uses to create real-world impact, rather than focusing only on individual narratives. It also recognises that the evidence base is stronger in some areas than others, and it is intended to encourage further inquiry and more consistent analysis over time.

Key Recommendations

• Integrate gender and identity into routine hybrid threat assessment: Treat identity-based targeting as part of adversary tradecraft to strengthen early warning and response design.
• Use structured prompts to identify signals and patterns: Apply practical questions to incidents, campaigns and trends to surface who is being targeted, how and to what operational end.
• Map enabling ecosystems, not only messaging: Track lawfare, mobilisation around values and relevant funding or coalition-building that can sustain polarising narratives and pressure institutions.
• Account for gendered coercion and intimidation in operational analysis: Recognise patterns of sexualised threats, harassment and coercion as potential indicators of intent and effects, alongside other forms of pressure.
• Strengthen cross-domain coordination: Improve information-sharing and escalation pathways across relevant functions (security, intelligence, resilience, communications, law enforcement and policy) to avoid siloed responses.
• Combine resilience with disruption where appropriate: Pair defensive measures (such as cyber defence and institutional hardening) with proactive approaches that reduce adversary capability and cross-domain reinforcement.

This framework is intended for NATO and national analysts, planners and policymakers working on hybrid threats, resilience, strategic communications and operational planning. By improving how gender and identity dynamics are identified and assessed, it supports more accurate situational awareness and more effective responses to hybrid campaigns targeting Allied cohesion and decision-making.