Coercive nuclear threats under domestic dissonance: How public opinion shapes the nuclear credibility of autocracies and democracies

Drawing on original survey data, we investigate whether public sentiments regarding nuclear use mediate the perceived credibility of nuclear threats issued by states. We find that nuclear threats issued by democratic states in which the public is opposed to nuclear use are assessed as significantly less credible than threats issued by democratic states with publics ambivalent about or supportive of nuclear use. Moreover, we find assessments of nuclear credibility depend more on domestic political features than on more traditional indicators of resolve. Importantly, however, the effect of public opposition only appears consistently for democracies, suggesting that democracies' nuclear signaling can be both enabled and constrained by public sentiment and that autocracies may be held less accountable to both hawkish and dovish domestic pressures.

Citation: Seitz, S., & Sukin, L. (2026). Coercive nuclear threats under domestic dissonance: How public opinion shapes the nuclear credibility of autocracies and democracies. Contemporary Security Policy, 1–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2026.2704865