Lawless Britain? Perceptions vs Reality

Britain is lawless and at risk of being overwhelmed by a surging crime wave – or so one would think based on comments from a variety of influential political figures. Such warnings of imminent societal collapse are not solely the preserve of the Conservative Party or Reform; Labour’s Attorney General also stated that the very fabric of the nation is at risk of ‘unravelling’ due to crime.

These concerns appear to be shared by the wider public. In last year’s Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) 82% of respondents believed that crime had risen last year, versus 57% ten years ago. Similar trends have been observed in Scotland in recent years. Furthermore, 21% of Brits believe that crime is one of the most important issues facing the country, up from 9% in 2016.

Yet, despite the prevailing mood – and excepting Scotland where crime rates diverge and should be treated separately – data from police, hospitals and population surveys indicate that, in many respects, Britain is safer than ever. What should one make of this discrepancy?

A Less Violent Britain

At first glance, Britain’s growing lawlessness appears undeniable. Nigel Farage’s claim that total crime rates are 50% higher today than they were in the 1990s, based upon Police Recorded Crime (PRC) data, seems well-founded. However, as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) notes, ‘Police recorded crime does not tend to be a good indicator of general trends in crime’ due to persistent underreporting and frequent changes in reporting methods, making it more useful when evaluating high-harm, low-volume crime, such as homicide.

In contrast, victim-based surveys like the CSEW address some of these limitations through large-scale population interviews and by maintaining a consistent methodology over time. This makes them the preferred measure of crime trends by the ONS and they paint a very different picture of evolving crime rates. With the exception of online fraud and computer misuse, which have proliferated due to the increasing digitisation of society, total numbers of crimes have fallen by almost two thirds since 2002. Upon breaking the data down to examine crime-specific patterns, two main trends emerge.

Firstly, violent crime is generally decreasing. Homicide is down almost 50% in England and Wales since the early 2000s and is at record lows in Northern Ireland. Even in London, the target of vehement criticism from the Right in the UK and the US, murder rates are currently at a ten-year low. The picture surrounding knife crime is less clear; rates increased significantly in England and Wales throughout the 2000s but have stabilised in recent years and are currently below the pre-pandemic peak. Offences involving firearms have also dropped by over 50% in England and Wales in the last two decades.

These statistics are corroborated by NHS data – hospital admissions resulting from violent assault in England are down by over 50% since 2006. The most recent analysis by the National Violence Surveillance Network, which reports annually on these figures, concluded that ‘serious violence in England and Wales has decreased substantially over the past 25 years’.

A More Disordered Britain?

Nevertheless, the decline in violence is only one half of the story. The second main trend is that certain low-level, highly visible offences are increasing in England and Wales (less so in Northern Ireland). Shoplifting is at a record high, particularly affecting cities including Nottingham and Leeds, while London is experiencing a phone snatching epidemic (although, interestingly, theft against individuals more broadly appears to be declining). Other offences that are also more symptomatic of disorder than serious, organised crime are also up; dog attacks are rising and fare evasion, which Robert Jenrick drew attention to earlier this year, is significantly higher than it was ten years ago.

The result of these diverging trends is a perplexing dissonance in public opinion. On the one hand, most Brits recognise that the they are less likely to be victimised – both men and women across England, Wales and Northern Ireland feel significantly safer walking alone after dark than they did previously. On the other hand, the number of people who think that crime has risen in recent years and should be a national priority has significantly grown. How should policymakers respond to this paradox?

The Online Arena: Social Media Narratives

At least a part of the problem here lies with strategic communication and public perception. Attempts by politicians and journalists to restore public confidence have met significant resistance on social media and from commentators engaging in ‘crime-data-trutherism’ – the refusal to believe official statistics that do not show that crime is surging.

Although some of this is likely due to politicians leveraging the fear of crime for personal gain, part of it stems from the genuine difficulty that many people have in accepting data that contradicts video footage seen online. The emotive power of ‘signal crimes’ – those which disproportionately influence public fear of crime – has long been known, but the impact of social media and smartphones on signal crimes is a more recent development. As videos and images of crime proliferate online – be that incidences of shoplifting or more violent acts such as the shocking murder of Iryna Zarutska – the public’s exposure to crime has exponentially grown.

With signal crimes increasing in visibility, previously distant, isolated incidents that would have been witnessed by a handful of individuals are now observed by millions, offering ideal ammunition to those seeking to portray Britain as lawless. If governments want a public that is informed and proportionately concerned about crime, they must engage with and respond to concerns raised through this particularly visual and emotive medium.

More impactful public messaging and a stronger online presence is one means of doing this and the Metropolitan Police has been a pioneer in this regard. Their well-edited, action-packed videos have garnered millions of views on YouTube and serve as an example at a time when falling charge rates have prompted questions surrounding the capacity and desire of law enforcement to tackle crime. As the physical and digital worlds increasingly overlap, police forces must not neglect the role of social media in shaping perceptions of safety and ensure that the wider public see their actions, not just those of criminals.

The Physical Arena: Policing Priorities

However, efforts to reclaim digital space will not work without tangible changes on the ground. Previous studies have shown that the British public generally recognise and respond to evolving crime rates, with recent trends and additional research highlighting that worries about crime are often shaped more by low-level disorder than by serious violence. Law enforcement must therefore meaningfully reduce petty theft and public disorder to respond to these concerns.

Evidently, this is easier said than done. Shrinking budgets have led to a decade of police cuts and difficult prioritisation decisions. Facing these resource constraints, successive governments have focused on bringing down violent crime (and seen some success in this area), at times at the expense of other threats, as evidenced by cuts to neighbourhood policing and attempts to ‘define deviancy down’ by redefining shoplifting as a summary only offence in 2014, interpreted by many as a ‘licence to steal’.

The current government’s intentions to boost neighbourhood policing with 13,000 additional officers points to a recognition of these issues. However, the notion that police can effectively tackle low-level theft as well as serious violent crime is optimistic at the best of times, let alone in a fiscal context where budgetary constraints are forcing major cutbacks. In reality, an increased emphasis on petty theft necessitates a decreased focus elsewhere. There are signs of growing public engagement with these debates, with media sources reporting that a recent operation tackling phone smuggling in London depended upon detectives ‘who would ordinarily investigate armed robberies and drug smuggling.’

In light of these issues, the Labour government’s pledge to ‘take back our streets’ by halving serious violent crime as well as boosting community policing while police forces simultaneously face budget shortfalls of hundreds of millions of pounds appears more of a wish list than a realisable policy position. The unfortunate reality is that challenging prioritisation decisions lie ahead.

There are no easy fixes here, but there is a genuine risk that if community policing is made a priority to combat disorder, other forms of offending will rise once again as resources are diverted away from more specialist units. Those highlighting rising theft and disorder to promote a narrative of Britain’s lawlessness should be careful what they wish for.

© RUSI, 2025.

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