Europe’s Diesel Vulnerability to US Export Restrictions

US President Donald Trump’s statement on 22 September 2026 that he may support a ban or a quantitative restriction on US diesel exports marks a potential reversal in the logic of the US leader’s own ‘energy dominance’ strategy.

Since his first term in the White House, Trump has presented abundant US energy exports as a source of economic and geopolitical leverage. And soon after his 2024 re-election but well before returning to office, he repeatedly encouraged European allies to replace Russian energy with US supply. The US administration explicitly identifies crude oil, refined petroleum products and liquefied natural gas (LNG) as instruments of US economic and national security. And the 2025 US-EU trade framework envisages substantial additional European purchases of US energy. Now, however, Trump appears to be publicly backing the option of restricting diesel exports, claiming that he had asked his administration to examine the option, although officials remain divided over whether a full or partial restriction would work. Restrictions on oil product exports – largely due to international shortages because of the blockage of Gulf supply routes – have already been implemented by Russia and China. China restricted refined-fuel exports in March 2026 after the Iran conflict disrupted crude supplies. Russia restricted diesel exports in July after Ukrainian strikes tightened its domestic fuel market.

Questions over US Reliability

The significance of the Trump administration’s potential move therefore goes beyond its immediate effect on diesel prices. Restricting exports during a global supply shock could raise questions among America’s European allies about the reliability of the US as an energy supplier, particularly after Washington spent years encouraging Europeans to increase their dependence on US energy as a reassurance against future politically inspired energy interruptions.

And the implications are even more acute because alternative supplies are unusually constrained. Since early 2026, the EU has simultaneously prohibited imports of third-country petroleum products refined from Russian crude, closing an important route through which Russian feedstock previously returned to the European market, while Russia, normally one of the world’s largest diesel exporters, once again, has restricted diesel and other fuel exports to protect its domestic market, with limited exemptions for countries covered by Moscow’s intergovernmental agreements. Meanwhile, flows through the Strait of Hormuz have remained severely disrupted since the February conflict with Iran: Middle Eastern diesel exports were around 50% lower year on year in March-August 2026 despite emergency shipping arrangements, while alternative routes have become more expensive and constrained.

Washington’s Domestic Dilemma

Republican lawmakers are putting pressure on the president ahead of November’s midterm elections to curb exports, as diesel prices soar to record highs in the US. National average diesel prices surpassed US$6.50 (£4.87) a gallon on 22 September, a new high. And US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed officials were assessing ‘whether a full or partial ban would work’ without disrupting refinery capabilities. But the policy dilemma for Washington is unusually painful. An export restriction could provide some short-term political relief at home, where record diesel prices are hitting farmers, freight operators and consumers ahead of the midterms. But such a move would remove supply from an already tight international market precisely when US exports are compensating for the decline in Russian and Middle Eastern availability, as well as directly undermine one of the arguments underpinning US energy diplomacy: that greater reliance on American supply reduces geopolitical risk.

A New Political Risk for Europe

A year ago, in 2025, President Trump threatened tariffs on European countries if they did not buy more US energy exports. Now, he is threatening to cut off diesel supplies that have become vital to the continent.

If the US, faced with difficulties in its domestic market, is determined to restrict exports, European politicians may increasingly view dependence on US energy not only as a means of diversification, allowing them to reduce dependence on Russia and the Middle East, but also as a dependence that poses a specific political risk and needs to be reduced.

‘We expect close partners to consult each other before taking measures that affect shared markets,’ European Commission spokesman Olof Gill said on 24 September. Indeed, although Trump does not have a very distinguished record in consulting partners.

© RUSI, 2026.

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