Islamic State 'likely to strike region in summer’
“If we saw an attack somewhere in Southeast Asia that is seen as being inspired, linked or maybe even directed by IS.”
Raffaello Pantucci for South China Morning Post, June 11
Also for Dhaka Tribune, June 12
States seek solutions to deal with cyber threat
Singapore's impending move to delink civil service computers from the Internet has drawn flak, but is in fact a trend-setting move, as other governments mull over going back to typewriters and analogue systems to protect highly sensitive information.
Jonathan Eyal in The Straits Times 13 June
Terror threat grows more random by the day
The fact that Orlando is the first attack of its kind outside the Middle East, therefore, is not for any lack of will on the part of Isis. It underlines the random way in which “lone actor” jihadists now pick their targets.
Raffaello Pantucci in The Times, 14 June
Mentions in the Media
NATO chief: 4 battalions going to Baltic states, Poland
Deterrence of the Russians will be more in the assurance that if they were to attack, they would come into contact with NATO forces almost immediately, and that therefore the Russians should not doubt NATO's determination to fight.
Jonathan Eyal for ABC News, June 13
Also for Fox News, June 13
Also for Times Republican, June 14
China and the Pacific
Wheel within wheels: China vs India
No question that India has to be very careful in evaluating the situation. It can't be expected to come running and join the Chinese bandwagon but has made it clear that it is keeping the options open. Some of the Asian neighbours have liked the project as a good opportunity for a large flow of Chinese investment that India cannot match. So it can't be seen actively hostile to it for losing strategic support in the region.
Shashank Joshi for The Financial Express, June 11
China keeps close eye on Malabar exercises
Shashank Joshi, Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London observed that it is normal for naval forces to watch an adversary’s exercise, typically at a safe distance, and particularly so when three adversaries are exercising together. “What's unusual about this is not the surveillance, but the intrusion into Japanese territorial waters,” he said.
Shashank Joshi for The Hindu 16 June
Euro 2016 Security
France's Euro 2016 Challenges
Hooliganism is a threat. We have clearly seen football fans or individuals who have support these teams and are dedicated to them and there is usually an unfortunate hard core who will resort to violence. We saw rioting in the World Cup last time in France. And we saw, you know, particularly rioting in Marseille where the British fans got out of hand when they team was playing there. This is not unprecedented. But a lot of work has gone in to deal with the problem of hooliganism. It is not uniform across the union. But the member states are trying to police their fans.
Raffaello Pantucci for CNN Newsroom, June 10
Migration Crisis and People Trafficking
Their [traffickers] networks involve up to 25 layers of intermediaries and facilitators, among them an ever-changing cast of lorry drivers, travel agents, money changers, people with access to safe houses and fishermen, along with bribeable officials, soldiers and police officers.
Peter Roberts in The Economist, 18 June
‘Europe really does protect our fundamental rights’
Britain’s Coastguard Agency currently relies greatly on the French as was highlighted recently by the rescue of migrants in the English Channel. Britain has only four patrol vessels for its 7,700 miles of coastline. The Royal United Services Institute and the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory say France has “20 times the number of resources per kilometre of coast”.
The Irish World, 16 June
IS likely to target Southeast Asia in coming months
Raffaello Pantucci, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said he wouldn’t be surprised “if we saw an attack somewhere in Southeast Asia that is seen as being inspired, linked or maybe even directed by IS”.
Raffaello Pantucci in The Dhaka Tribune 12 June
Somalia: Yet another setback for AU’s peace efforts
The political imperative to take the fight to Al-Shabaab during 2014 and 2015, Al-Shabaab’s ability to adapt to changing circumstances, Amisom’s various international problems and the weakness of the Somali National Army combined to leave the AU mission overstretched: unable to hold the newly recovered settlements while simultaneously conducting offensive operations.
Paul Williams in The Herald,15 June
Don't want to Leave but hate the idea of Remain? I have the ideal solution
When this referendum ends, the Prime Minister’s work begins. He tried with his “renegotiation”. An honourable failure. But his heart was in the right place. He took the first step on a long journey.
Lord Saatchi at RUSI, The Telegraph, 14 June