State of the Union: Petras Katinas Responds to Energy Security Proposals

Von der Leyen's State of the Union speech showed that the energy transition is now also seen as a security issue. The conflict in the Middle East has revealed the high cost of Europe's reliance on foreign energy. Reducing these dependencies has become a top priority for both Europe’s security and its energy transition.

The challenge now is not ambition but making progress. In July, the Commission set a goal to increase electricity’s share of final energy use from 23% to 46% by 2040, but electrification has hardly advanced over the past decade. Last year, Europe added over 80 GW of renewable capacity, but about six times that amount is still waiting to connect to the grid. The main focus now is to build the grids, storage, and infrastructure needed for electrification, while keeping electricity affordable.

But making progress is not just about building more grid and storage capacity. It also means strengthening the resilience of the system. The speech highlighted both climate risks and Europe's reliance on China for key raw materials, but these issues are still often treated separately. As electrification grows, these challenges will become increasingly connected. A more electric Europe will depend more heavily on grids, substations, interconnectors and imported equipment, while climate shocks and hybrid threats will put additional pressure on the same infrastructure. Europe therefore needs to go beyond adding generation capacity and build an energy system that is connected, protected, climate-resilient and backed by diversified supply chains.

Electricity’s share of final energy use means the proportion of the energy actually consumed by households, businesses, transport and industry that comes in the form of electricity. So, for example, replacing petrol/diesel cars with EVs increases electrification. Replacing gas boilers with heat pumps does the same; and industry can electrify processes that currently use gas, oil or coal. Moving from 23% to 46% means roughly doubling the role of electricity across the economy, not simply producing more electricity.

Petras Katinas, Research Fellow, Climate, Energy and Defence