Nicholas Hopton Reacts to the Outcomes of Israel's Election

The impact of the election will be felt well beyond Israel's borders and the region. Although, as former Prime Minister of Israel Ehud Olmert said recently, Netanyahu and his government have done great damage to Israel's standing in the world, the outcome of the election may go some way to mitigating its long-term impacts in two of Israel's most important traditional western allies, the US and the UK.

In the case of the US, despite President Trump’s endorsement of Netanyahu, the direction of public opinion seems clear and misgivings across the political spectrum are unlikely to be diminished.

In the UK, that outcome is likely to be more damaging. Relations are already at their lowest ebb in decades following the Burnham Labour government's sanction of illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank and the misjudged Israeli reaction – attempting in defiance of diplomatic conventions and international law to close the Consulate General in Jerusalem, and then most recently Netanyahu endorsing Argentina‘s claim to the Falkland Islands.

That said, a Netanyahu come-back seems perhaps one of the less likely scenarios, even though opposition candidates may not be able to end his political career completely at this stage. The polls suggest a closer race than seemed likely a few weeks ago, and the margin of error may be substantive. Yet, Netanyahu may benefit from the approximately 0.5 million first time voters with Israeli youth moving politically to the Right.

The most likely scenario may be weeks if not months of political wrangling and failed attempts at coalition building between unlikely bedfellows, followed by an election rerun in the New Year sometime. In that case, there may be opportunities for both the US and UK to try and reset their damaged relationships with Israel by seeking a fresh start with whoever emerges as the post-Netanyahu leader of the Israeli government.

Nicholas Hopton is a RUSI Distinguished Fellow, affiliated with the International Security research group