Jennifer Scotland comments on the recent assignation attempt on Miguel Uribe Turbay

"The attempted assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay – Colombian senator and aspiring presidential candidate for the opposition party Centro Democrático (CD) – on Saturday night has shaken the country and sparked national controversy, raising concerns about a resurgence in political violence in the lead up to the 2026 national election.

A 15-year-old was arrested under suspicion of conducting the attack, but the motive remains unclear. One hypothesis, voiced by Minister of Defence Pedro Sánchez, is that the teenager was “instrumentalised” by organised crime groups, raising fears about heightened electoral violence. Such violence has long been a feature of Colombian politics, given its decades of internal armed conflict. During the last electoral cycle in 2022, attacks by armed groups – including armed strikes and threats against political and social leaders – increased substantially. However, these tended to be localised and linked to armed groups’ territorial expansion and consolidation in their areas of operation, following the 2016 peace agreement between the Colombian government and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) insurgency. In contrast, high-profile assassinations, or magnicidios, of prominent opposition politicians have been rare since the 1980s, when paramilitary violence against left-wing politicians was widespread and often undermined democratic participation.

Critics of left-wing Colombian President Gustavo Petro – including members of CD and the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio – have blamed what they describe as Petro's “inflammatory rhetoric” for the attack, implying the assassination attempt had a political motive. Political tensions in Colombia have been building in recent weeks, with the sustained legislative gridlock facing Petro's government. Since taking office in 2022, Petro has struggled to pass his ambitious social reforms through a predominantly right-wing Congress. With only one year of his tenure remaining, he has turned increasingly to public appeals on social media, often using confrontational tweets to vent his frustration and respond to critics. In March, Petro announced a controversial proposal to put his reforms to a public referendum that drew sharp criticism from opposition figures, including Uribe Turbay himself, who hours before the attack said he would sue any ministers who supported the measure.

Nonetheless, by attributing political motives to the attack without evidence, Petro's critics risk deepening societal polarisation ahead of the 2026 elections. To dispel speculation and rebuild trust, it is essential that Petro's government demonstrates a firm commitment to diffusing tensions, including by conducting a transparent and impartial investigation into the attack and providing robust security guarantees for political candidates."