Ed Arnold comments on the consequence of Russian drones violating Polish airspace

'For the first time since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Poland has shot down Russian drones over its territory. Prime Minister Tusk said a ‘huge number’ of Russian drones violated Polish airspace and early reports suggest nineteen drones were detected and up to four successfully intercepted. No casualties have been reported. This incursion is a far more serious violation of Polish airspace from Russia than what has happened previously.'

'This escalation is a product of the intensification of Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian political, civilian and energy infrastructure over the past few months. The decision by the Kremlin to escalate is intertwined with the discussions between the Russians and US on a possible ceasefire and peace in Ukraine. Putin wants to demonstrate strength and likely test NATO resolve. However, he is also demonstrating that he has no interest in the war ending. European leaders will be keen to present this further evidence forcefully to President Trump to try and convince him to pressure Putin to come to the negotiating table in good faith.'

'There is also another opportunity for Europe. If Poland is willing to intercept drones over its territory, then Poland and NATO should offer to extend that protection to the Western part of Ukraine. It is technically feasible, and the decision is one of political will. If Western powers can offer the same protection to Israel from Iranian drone attacks, then this should be extended to Ukraine. Protecting Western Ukraine would better protect Ukrainian civilians and military production and training facilities. It would also demonstrate to Putin that the Europeans are not deterred or afraid of Russian aggression and in doing so, better prepare the Europeans for a potential deployment of a Reassurance Force in Ukraine which must also be protected.'

Comment by Ed Arnold, Senior Research Fellow, European Security