Burcu Ozcelik responds to Israel’s strikes on Hamas leaders in Qatar

'More broadly, they underscore the erosion of a central principle of international law: the deterrent force of state sovereignty. That principle has historically been applied unevenly, one way in the West, another elsewhere, but the location of this attack adds to its significance. Qatar hosts America’s second-largest military base in the region and is a formal non-NATO ally. The precedent is striking and signifies a new rung in the escalation ladder. The Gulf’s response could define or redefine the regional order for years to come.'

'The Israeli government’s rationale is that the strikes targeted Hamas, a designated terrorist organisation by most of the West, constituting legitimate action in the context of cross-border counter-terrorism operations. Not long after the 7 October terrorist attacks, Israeli officials had warned that Hamas members abroad were legitimate targets. On 18 November 2023, then Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said members of Hamas, including those outside of the Gaza Strip, are “dead men walking,” and there was “no difference between a terrorist with a Kalashnikov and a terrorist in a three-piece suit”.'

'Yet, the strikes mark a new and more dangerous phase in the Middle East. The spell of state inviolability is broken. Israel’s post-October 7 security doctrine has evolved to legitimise the targeting of hostile actors in jurisdictions that provide harbour or safe havens for such groups. That the strike was carried out in daylight, and not disguised as a covert intelligence operation, is telling. In the immediate term, the reality remains bleak. Palestinians in Gaza continue to suffer grievously, and no clear path has emerged to secure the release of Israeli hostages.'

Comment by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East, North Africa and Turkey Security