Alaa Zoubi Comments on the Outcome of Israel's Elections

Although there is much speculation that the elections will bring about changes straight away regarding the Palestinian issue, the truth of politics reveals something else. Election day marks only the beginning of a process whereby the forming of a coalition in Israel can take up to 100 days. Many expect the election to alter the landscape, but the underlying strategic dilemmas in Gaza and the West Bank will persist regardless of who takes power.

The main contest pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud against Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar. Crucially, both leaders share baseline security principles: both oppose Palestinian statehood and reject a total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza without overriding security control. While their implementation methods and openness to diplomatic compromise may differ, reality on the ground rather than campaign pledges, will heavily influence whether policies continue or adapt.

The core operational stalemate in Gaza continues to be that of security transition and governance. In the international framework, as exemplified in the US-endorsed Board of Peace with its 20-Point Plan, there is a transition envisaged towards a non-Hamas Palestinian government of technocrats, with the assistance of the International Security Force (ISF). The success of the plan, however, depends on the complete disarmament of Hamas. Since Hamas has not intend yet to disarm before the Israelis withdraw from Gaza, it leaves the new government with an instant stalemate situation to deal with.

In the West Bank, the newly elected government will need to manage escalating diplomatic friction. Recent events including the international sanctions such as those from the UK and its allies due to the construction of settlements and outpost attacks make up a very difficult dilemma for the new government to handle.

In the end, how the new Israeli government that will be formed, if done within the 100-day period, will manage to overcome these open issues depends largely on domestic factors. The new government will have to deal with the stress that is felt by the military, the highly political issue of Haredi draft exemptions and the remaining open fronts in Lebanon and Iran. It is through these domestic factors alongside the new coalition decides to form a State Commission of Inquiry as a result of the October 7 failures, will alter the internal balance of power and heavily dictate the tactical limits and strategic posture of Israel’s policy towards Gaza, the West Bank and the wider region.

Alaa Zoubi is Research Assistant for Middle East Security