Beyond ‘Cyber’ in Deterrence: A Multilevel Framework

RUSI’s Cyber and Tech team is launching a new report as part of its ongoing work on State Responsibility and Cyber Deterrence. The research builds on the research paper published last summer on ‘Rethinking Cyber Deterrence in a Multipolar World’.

In the first paper, Louise Marie Hurel and Gareth Mott argued for a practical view of cyber deterrence that is part of an integrated, cross-domain strategy, and that sits at the continuum of prevention and response measures that are cumulative, iterative, tailored and grey-zone oriented.

The paper Beyond ‘Cyber’ in Deterrence: A Multilevel Framework goes beyond case studies and analyses of individual tools for disrupting, degrading, denying and slowing down malicious cyber activity. It provides a framework for governments to map, identify and devise multi-level actions that use all levers of state power to achieve cyber deterrence outcomes.

The event on 21 September, From Silos to Statecraft: Whole-of-Government Cyber Deterrence in Europe, celebrates the pre-launch of the paper through an exclusive presentation of the findings and framework by Louise Marie Hurel, as well as a key discussion between NATO, Estonian, and private sector representatives, moderated by RUSI Director General, Rachel Ellehuus.

This paper delivers a transformative framework for cyber deterrence, demonstrating how NATO, EU member states and partners can more effectively counter hybrid threats by integrating cyber and non-cyber tools in a coordinated, whole-of-government approach. By moving beyond siloed, cyber-only responses, the paper empowers policymakers to achieve real deterrence outcomes against increasingly sophisticated adversaries.

Key Recommendations

1. Establish Central Coordination: Designate a national coordinating function to map, assess and arbitrate the use of all cyber and non-cyber tools, ensuring coherent and agile responses.
2. Define and Communicate Thresholds: Publicly state clear red lines for unacceptable cyber activity, coordinate these with allies, and pre-plan response options across all instruments of statecraft.
3. Enable Rapid Collective Action: Build new coalition mechanisms and expand the economic toolkit, including sanctions and market access conditions, to mobilise multilevel responses and sustain pressure on adversaries.
4. Leverage Partnerships for Behavioural Change: Calibrate economic and capacity-building tools to incentivise positive behaviour in third countries and develop proactive partnerships such as hunt-forward operations.
5. Sustain Pressure with Tailored Campaigns: Develop bespoke, layered campaigns against adversaries, regularly review effectiveness and adapt strategies to maximise impact and deny strategic advantage.

This actionable framework equips defence and security professionals with the tools and strategies needed to deter malicious cyber activity, manage escalation, and protect national and allied interests in an era of persistent hybrid threats.

The paper will be published online on 29 September. Please revisit this page on or after that date to read the research in full.