Beyond ‘Cyber’ in Deterrence: A Multilevel Framework

This paper delivers a transformative framework for cyber deterrence, demonstrating how NATO, EU member states and partners can more effectively counter hybrid threats by integrating cyber and non-cyber tools in a coordinated, whole-of-government approach. By moving beyond siloed, cyber-only responses, the paper empowers policymakers to achieve real deterrence outcomes against increasingly sophisticated adversaries.

Key Recommendations

1. Establish Central Coordination: Designate a national coordinating function to map, assess and arbitrate the use of all cyber and non-cyber tools, ensuring coherent and agile responses.
2. Define and Communicate Thresholds: Publicly state clear red lines for unacceptable cyber activity, coordinate these with allies, and pre-plan response options across all instruments of statecraft.
3. Enable Rapid Collective Action: Build new coalition mechanisms and expand the economic toolkit, including sanctions and market access conditions, to mobilise multilevel responses and sustain pressure on adversaries.
4. Leverage Partnerships for Behavioural Change: Calibrate economic and capacity-building tools to incentivise positive behaviour in third countries and develop proactive partnerships such as hunt-forward operations.
5. Sustain Pressure with Tailored Campaigns: Develop bespoke, layered campaigns against adversaries, regularly review effectiveness and adapt strategies to maximise impact and deny strategic advantage.

This actionable framework equips defence and security professionals with the tools and strategies needed to deter malicious cyber activity, manage escalation, and protect national and allied interests in an era of persistent hybrid threats.

The paper is accompanied by an interactive mapping tool designed to help states assess their readiness and willingness to use different tools, both independently and collectively.