Powering Deterrence: Energy Security Ahead of the NATO Summit 2026

RUSI's Energy and Security team hosted a public event on 30 June 2026, titled Powering Deterrence: Energy Security Ahead of the NATO Summit 2026, which discussed current trends and issues facing Europe's energy security. The event brought together representatives from NATO, the European Commission, the European Investment Bank, the European Defence Agency, defence and energy industry and academia to discuss how Europe's energy system and industrial base are evolving in response to the changing global security environment.

Participants agreed that Europe has entered a new geopolitical environment in which energy security is increasingly linked to military capability. While governments have in recent years focused on affordability, sustainability and the energy transition, the debate increasingly incorporates resilience and the ability to sustain defence operations. 

A recurring theme throughout the discussion was that modern armed forces depend both on electricity and liquid fuels. The growing use of drones, artificial intelligence, digital command systems and advanced sensors is increasing military electricity demand. 

At the same time, aircraft, heavy armour and naval platforms will continue to rely on aviation fuel, diesel and marine fuels for decades to come. Participants stressed that Europe's future energy system must therefore be capable of supplying both electricity and conventional fuels. Attendees also emphasised that the decline in European oil refining capacity has increased dependence on imported petroleum products and made supply chains more vulnerable. 

In response, NATO plans to expand its network of oil pipelines along its Eastern flank and to increase fuel storage capacity to strengthen resilience and ensure the continuity of military operations. Participants noted that future energy planning should better account for military fuel requirements, as well as the growing civilian demand for electricity driven by electrification and the use of artificial intelligence.

Participants noted that Europe has significantly reduced its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. However, as one dependency was reduced, others came to the fore. The discussion focused on Europe's dependence on third countries for natural gas, oil, critical raw materials, battery technology, rare earth processing, and renewable generation technologies.

Participants argued that these supply chains underpin both the energy transition and the expansion of Europe's defence industrial base. As a result, industrial resilience and defence readiness are increasingly interlinked. Participants stated that Europe must diversify its supply chains and strengthen domestic industrial capacity.

Participants highlighted the importance of financing dual-use infrastructure to strengthen Europe's resilience and defence industrial base. This is starting to happen. The European Investment Bank (EIB) has adopted a broad approach to dual-use investments through the European Security Strategic Initiative, supporting projects with a predominantly civilian purpose that also contribute to Europe's security and defence. As an example, the EIB is supporting an advisory programme in Greece to strengthen the energy security of military installations by reducing dependence on external energy supplies and improving the resilience of critical infrastructure.

Participants agreed that Europe has a technologically advanced defence industry, strong engineering capabilities and an increasingly innovative industrial base. The experience of Ukraine has accelerated innovation in autonomous systems, software and other emerging technologies, demonstrating that military capabilities can evolve much faster than traditional procurement cycles.

Participants identified three structural challenges.

The first is industrial scale. Europe currently lacks sufficient production capacity to meet the pace of rearmament. Scaling production requires not only additional manufacturing capacity but also resilient supply chains, secure access to critical raw materials and components, and a skilled workforce.

The second challenge is finance. Many companies continue to face difficulties securing the investment needed to expand production, while parts of the financial sector remain reluctant to support defence-related projects.

The third challenge is better integration between civilian and defence industries. Participants noted that modern defence increasingly depends on civilian technologies, including artificial intelligence, software, cloud computing and advanced manufacturing. Rather than developing separate industrial ecosystems, Europe should strengthen a common industrial base that supports both economic competitiveness and defence readiness.

Participants underlined that energy has moved beyond commodity trading and economics to become central to Europe's defence. Reducing strategic dependencies, while building resilient energy systems and boosting industrial capacity, are essential for Europe to succeed both in its energy transition and meeting its long-term defence goals.