Air Power

“In less than a year’s time, the world may well be contending with a nuclear Iran,” said Urban Coningham, of the Royal United Services Institute think tank on defence. Five years after the JCPOA withdrawal and three years after Joe Biden’s attempts to renegotiate failed, he said there was “still no new methodology for engaging with Iran”.

Justin Bronk, an expert on air power at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute think tank, said this could be a problem for Israel. “Israel would be limited in terms of standoff munitions in any SEAD/DEAD campaign against Iran, having only the older Delilah and air-launched ballistic Rampage which have limitations in terms of lacking low-observable signature and being relatively susceptible to electronic warfare degradation compared to the latest US-made standoff cruise missiles and AARGM-ER,” he says, referring to a weapon that seeks out radar beams at long range.

HA Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, also said he saw a complicated picture. “When Iran did attack, it was massively choreographed,” he said, referring to the fact the strike had not only been flagged up in advance but that the US and neighbours had been warned. “If it had not been so well choreographed, if it had been a complete surprise, I think fewer missiles would have been taken out and others would have got through. And I think while it is definitely a cliche to say Israel is completely indebted and dependent on the US, it is also true that if the US and other allies had not stood alongside Israel we would have seen a different outcome. The fact that Israel had to rely on a coalition contains a message: that you can’t imagine it’s always going to be like that. I don’t think people have grasped that properly before. That without American support there is really no way for Israel to maintain its security paradigm in way that it has.”