What to Worry About in 2016

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RUSI Members are invited to attend a presentation on the Center for Preventive Action's Preventive Priorities Survey.

Dr Paul Stares, Director of the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington DC, will discuss the results of the survey which polls U.S. foreign policy experts about the likelihood and impact of thirty potential crises or conflicts around the world in the coming year including the civil war in Syria, terrorist attacks on the US mainland and North Korean instability.

Joining Dr Stares, Simon Thacker, Head of Strategic Early Warning at the UK Cabinet Office has agreed to be a respondent and provide a UK assessment.

The result of the 2016 PPS can be found at: http://www.cfr.org/conflict-assessment/preventive-priorities-survey-2016/p37364.

Speaker Biography

Dr Paul B. Stares is the General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention and director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Prior to joining CFR, Dr. Stares was the vice president and director of the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention at the United States Institute of Peace. He worked as an associate director and senior research scholar at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation from 2000 to 2002 and was a senior research fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs and then director of studies at the Japan Center for International Exchange from 1996 to 2000. From 1984 to 1996, he was a research associate and later a senior fellow in the foreign policy studies program at the Brookings Institution. He has also been a NATO fellow and a scholar-in-residence at the MacArthur Foundation's Moscow office. In addition to his work for the Council, Dr. Stares is an Adjunct Professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and a Guest Lecturer at the London School of Economics. He has a BA from North Staffordshire Polytechnic and received both his MA and PhD from Lancaster University.

Simon Thacker has worked for the UK government for over nine years in a variety of roles. In his current position as Head of Strategic Early Warning in the Cabinet Office, he is a leading expert in building geo-political risk products and designing analytical systems. He has specialised in understanding the drivers of conflict and instability and supporting the development of UK’s strategy for preventing conflict and instability overseas.  He brings extensive experience of how technology and the growth of data are transforming organisational culture in the field of intelligence.

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